Weekly address to Ambassador Nye

"Gotta go where the money is"

Monday February 16th 2009

Good morning Ambassador Nye,
Today's theme. "gotta go where the money is"

My wife and I live in the Deep South where the 24 hundred mile long Mississippi River almost ends. Mandeville is a small sleepy Southern town in Louisiana. This is a 98% white Christian Republican country. People are gentle, caring and somewhat obese.

We often walk our dogs along lake Pontchartrain. One morning we came cross a couple with two daughters. They were not American. The mother told me they were moving to Atlanta Georgia for her husband new job. The teenaged girl said she wanted to go to New York City to study fine art at Cooper Union. The younger girl before school age came between us and said in a commanding voice. "I am Mona Monet Depressy." I asked her "So you are French. You also want to go to New York?" "No, I want to go to Atlanta. We gotta go where the money is."

Washington Post Sunday article -- titled "America's new rescuer : Japan"

Solving the financial crisis may be beyond the capacity of government finances. The likely $3 trillion price tag, --give or take, --of both saving the banks and stimulating the economy is causing interest rates to inch up. U.S. Treasury long-term rates have already risen from 2.1 percent just before Christmas to nearly 3 percent.

This is happening because the rest of the world, --which is also in trouble,-- is following in our fiscal footsteps. Financial markets envision a coming global credit Armageddon. And this scenario of rising interest rates, --with rates really jumping once our economy starts to recover, --could kill any chance that the recovery is sustainable.

The Obama team needs to do some quick, --creative, --global thinking. To escape a potential credit straitjacket, they should go where the money is. Today, the money is in Japan, still the world's largest source of excess savings.

Hmmm, Is that why Madam Hillary Rodham Clinton chose Japan as her first country to visit as Secretary of State? We could hear her husband Bill saying "Honey, we gotta go where the money is." I wish her good luck; Japan has been wary of her behavior for many years.

For an example, when Mrs. Clinton was running for president last year, she raised eyebrows in foreign policy circles -- especially in Japan, the key U.S. ally in Asia -- when she declared in an article in Foreign Affairs that "our relationship with China will be the most important bilateral relationship in the world in this century."

Now, as Secretary of Sate, Clinton will be putting that bold pronouncement into action. She is arriving in Tokyo tonight on her maiden voyage as America's chief diplomat, --and Tokyo snared the symbolically important first stop on four-nation tour. But Clinton and other Obama administration officials have made it clear that they want to move dramatically forward in relations with Beijing, finding new avenues for cooperation between the world's biggest economy and the world's fastest-growing economy, especially on climate change and the environment.

"Some believe that China on the rise is, by definition, an adversary," Clinton said in a speech Friday to the Asia Society in New York. "To the contrary, we believe that the United States and China can benefit from and contribute to each other's successes. It is in our interests to work harder to build on areas of common concern and shared opportunities."

Hello, Madam, be careful, China remains under communist rule.

While Clinton is heading for China, --our Prime Minister Taro Aso is scheduled to visit Sakhalin Russia on Wednesday the 18th,-- which is one day after Madam Clinton leaves Tokyo for Beijing. Mr. Aso is invited by the Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Rumor has it -- Moscow wants to normalize relationship with Tokyo by returning the northern islands. These four islands and half of Sakhalin peninsula were taken by the Soviet Union at the end of World War 2. Putin wants Japanese money and technology in exchange for these Islands. Putin knows he has to go where the money is.

I will continue to report to you what is in the Japanese mind. This world financial crisis will take our two countries relationship in to a new stage. In a worse case scenario, our fifty year marriage might end. I am afraid to say that Japan may be breaking away from this alliance. I will see you all next week. Thank you

Weekly address to Ambassador Joseph Nye

Wednesday February 4th 2009
Good morning Ambassador Nye,

Today's theme. "Does this global recession affect US-Japan alliance?"
I like to begin with Bloomberg report,,

Davos World Economic Forum ended yeterday. Kenneth Rogoff-professor of Economics at Harvard University said "everyone I spoke to says it's the most grim Davos the've ever been to,the mood has been very depressed." A big change this year was the virtual absence of Wall Street figures among the 2,500 delegates at the conference.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and the Russian Premier Putin cited the U.S. for leading the world into recession in back to back speeches on the opening day.

JP Morgan Chase & Co. Chief Exective Officer Jamie Dimon was the only U.S. banking chief who showed up. He said "God knows, some really stupid things were done by American banks."

Nassim Nicholas Talb, Author of the best-selling book "The black Swan." said "We should not trust these bankers." Delegates also took turns bashing American policies and its role in the world.

The greatest era of global prosperity came to an end,,, That is a big report!


Ambassador Nye,Japan is also sharing this recession with the rest of the world. Although, Japan is rich,strong and smart,our economy depends heavily on exports to the North American market.It means Japan must sell their products to America and you know the American market is shrinking at great speed.

When we discuss our alliance with America, we can not separate our economy and national security. I strongly believe our Prime Minister Taro Aso is the leader, who can guide us out of this recession. I am sure you are aware we have political discord between our two parties. Mr. Aso needs your cooperation. He should stay in power long enough to bring this deadly economic problem to an end. When President Obama and Prime Minister Aso are willing to work side by to stabilize two economies the rest of the world will see the Sunrise on the horizon. We can not afford to fail.

Does this economy crisis affect US-Japan alliance? Yes,it sure does.In what way you may ask. My answer is how to share the burden of security which is vital not only in the Asia Pacific but also Afghanistan and other hot spots around the world.

It's no doubt,there will be uncomfortable moments as we disagree with each other on the evaluation of costs. For example, let's say, the US can not afford to keep the nuclear powered aircraft carrier George Washington at the Yokosuka Naval base. Then what are Japanese alternatives? Should we build our own super aircraft carrier to guarantee a presence in the area? Another example,presently,the US continues to refuse the sale of F-twenty two stealth fighters. Should Japan purchase Euro-fighters or manufacture our own version? The last uncomfortable example, Japan has the strength, capability and finances to make dozens of high grade nuclear war heads if ever necessary.I hope this never happens.,

Tuesday, Yonhap, the South Korean news agency reported a North Korean train carrying a long tube-shaped object has recently been seen by U.S. and South Korean intelligence agencies. And it is thought to be a Taepondong-2 missile.Taepondong-2 missiles are believed to have the capability to reach as far as Alaska. Japanese and South Korean media said the North Korea's preparation for another long-range missile test is likely to be completed within two months.

When we Japanese citizens hear news reports like this, we are frustrated at our Pacifist Constitution. We must revise Article 9, or pass legislation regarding collective defense laws as soon as possible. However,right now our Prime Minister's hands are tied with this humongous economic crisis.

Besides the economic disaster brought by the United States,there is a ton of anti-American sentiment in my country. The former Ambassador Thomas Schieffer was an all American gentleman but he could not change this negative trend toward your country. In my view, his diplomacy failed. Ambassador Nye, you must not fail.

The Japanese public is well educated and a vocal mass that wants to be heard. While government is only part of the solution the Japanese ordinary citizen is the other part. Falcons Society is a grass-roots organization and we are growing. We are optimistic about our future and we want to help you in any way.

I will see you all next week. Thank you.


Nuclear aircraft carrier George Washington at Yokosuka Naval base 08


Prime Minister Taro Aso. He is your friend and ally. We wish your team to succeed.